Why Venezuela Suddenly Matters So Much

Oil, cartels, China, Russia—and a revived Monroe Doctrine

Nov 26, 2025

Hi friends,

Every day, sometimes several times a day, we see headlines that fall very short of the real story. ‘Spin’ abounds. Ideologies take center stage. It’s tough to get the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. I’d go so far as to say, it may be impossible.

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A couple of weeks ago, a UK Telegraph piece by reporter Connor Stringer (widely syndicated via Yahoo and other sites) ran under this headline:

“The real reason Trump is preparing for war with Venezuela.”

Whatever you think about the framing, the article pointed at something the rest of the media has mostly skimmed over or ignored: the strategic picture behind the U.S. naval buildup in the Caribbean.

This article is my attempt to lay out that bigger picture — separating documented facts (see Sources) from thoughts and opinions.

The Monroe Doctrine, Then and Now

On December 2, 1823, President James Monroe announced what became known as the Monroe Doctrine:

The U.S. would stay out of European great-power conflicts,
In return, European powers were warned that attempts to extend their political systems or influence over newly independent nations in the Americas would be viewed as “dangerous to our peace and safety.”

That core idea — the Western Hemisphere is not an open playground for outside empires — has shaped U.S. foreign policy for two centuries.

Fast-forward to today:

The Trump administration’s second term and the broader conservative policy world increasingly talk about “re-hemisphering” U.S. strategy: shifting attention back from far-flung interventions to defending the Americas from adversaries like China and Russia.

My thought: You could fairly describe this as a modernized Monroe Doctrine — not copying the original language word-for-word, but taking the same principle (“our hemisphere is off-limits to hostile powers”) and applying it to China, Russia, and Iran instead of 19th-century European empires.

Why Venezuela Sits at the Crossroads

Venezuela hits nearly every strategic nerve at once:

Massive energy stakes
- Venezuela already has the world’s largest proven oil reserves, and just to its east, in neighboring Guyana, U.S. company ExxonMobil and partners have discovered nearly 11 billion barrels of recoverable oil equivalent in the offshore Stabroek Block, off the coast of the disputed Essequibo region.
China’s deep financial footprint
- Since the mid-2000s, China has provided around $60 billion in loans to Venezuela, much of it oil-backed and tied specifically to energy projects in places like the Orinoco Belt.
- More recent reporting shows Chinese firms investing in new oil production infrastructure in Venezuela despite U.S. sanctions, and Chinese refiners buying re-routed Venezuelan crude.
Russia’s role
- Venezuela operates Russian-made Sukhoi jets and other military equipment, and Russian-linked firms continue joint ventures in Venezuelan oil fields under long-term agreements.
Iran and Hezbollah connections
- The Atlantic Council’s 2020 report The Maduro–Hezbollah Nexus concludes that Hezbollah’s networks have helped turn Venezuela into a “hub for the convergence of transnational organized crime and international terrorism,” deepening Iran’s influence and providing revenue for both the regime and Hezbollah.
Crime, drugs, and migration
- U.S. officials have long accused elements of the Venezuelan state of collaborating with narco-trafficking networks. In 2025, the Trump administration went further by formally designating the alleged “Cartel de los Soles” — said to be linked to Maduro and his allies — as a Foreign Terrorist Organization.

Important caveat:
Some experts, including some quoted in the Guardian’s coverage, note that while Venezuela is clearly a transit country for some cocaine (especially toward Europe via the Caribbean), most cocaine bound for the U.S. still moves via the eastern Pacific. “Narco-terrorist” terminology is not universally accepted.

So, Venezuela is not just “another unstable country.” It’s a chokepoint where great-power competition, oil, terrorism, and organized crime all intersect — in the Americas.

The Guyana–Essequibo Trigger (Fact)

Now to the spark.

The Essequibo region is a large, sparsely populated area administered by Guyana but claimed by Venezuela.
An international arbitration award in 1899 and subsequent processes had long been treated as having settled the border; Venezuela disputes that, but the issue was relatively quiet for decades.

Then, a decade of oil exploration changed everything:

ExxonMobil’s discovery of major offshore oil reserves in 2015, and subsequent finds, led industry and policy analysts to estimate around 11 billion barrels of recoverable resources in Guyana’s Stabroek Block — some of it lying off the coast of the Essequibo region.

After those discoveries:

Venezuela reignited its claim over Essequibo,
Held a controversial 2023 referendum asserting sovereignty over the region,
And in 2024–2025 lodged protests and threats over oil operations there, while Guyana deepened security and energy cooperation with the U.S. and other partners.

My thought: If you put yourself in Maduro’s shoes, watching U.S. and Western firms help your smaller neighbor develop a massive offshore oil jackpot in territory you claim — while your own economy is collapsing — the temptation to escalate appears obvious.

That’s exactly the kind of scenario the Monroe Doctrine is meant to prevent from turning into a wider war.

The U.S. Warships in the Caribbean

Since September 2025, the Trump administration has:

Deployed one of its most advanced aircraft carriers, the USS Gerald R. Ford, plus other warships to Caribbean waters.
Conducted more than 20 strikes on alleged drug-smuggling boats and semi-submersibles in Caribbean and nearby waters, killing at least 80 people according to public reporting.
Publicly framed these operations as part of a “war on drugs” and a campaign against “narco-terrorists.”

U.S. officials have not publicly declared an intent to invade Venezuela, but:

The scale of the naval presence is far beyond what would typically be required just for intermittent boat strikes.
Analysts (including former U.S. officials at the International Crisis Group and elsewhere) have openly suggested that this looks like a show of force aimed at pressuring or deterring Maduro, not merely interdicting individual drug shipments.

Peace through strength.
From a classic military-diplomacy standpoint, this looks very much like “gunboat diplomacy” in the Monroe-Doctrine tradition — parking overwhelming military power nearby, not to start a war but to shape decisions, deter aggression in Essequibo, and signal to China, Russia, and Iran that there are limits in America’s backyard.

How It All Connects

Putting the pieces together:

Oil & economic security (fact + analysis)
- Guyana’s oil boom and Venezuela’s existing reserves make this stretch of coast one of the most energy-strategic places in the world.
- If a hostile, heavily sanctioned regime with deep Chinese and Russian ties controls an oil prize of that size, it changes long-term energy and bargaining dynamics in the Americas.
A modern Monroe Doctrine
- Conservative policy circles explicitly talk about reasserting hemispheric defense and modernizing the Monroe Doctrine, particularly in response to China’s growing presence in Latin America.
- The Stringer/Telegraph piece calls Trump’s emerging strategy the “Donroe Doctrine,” aimed partly at pushing Chinese influence out of America’s “backyard.”
Crime, terrorism, and regime survival
- Reports from the Atlantic Council and others describe Venezuela as a hub for converging criminal and terrorist networks, including Hezbollah’s presence, which helps prop up the Maduro regime.
The U.S. “war on narco-terrorism” (fact + analysis)
- The Trump administration is explicitly framing its Caribbean campaign as a war on narco-terrorists, but the target set overlaps heavily with the networks and routes that sustain the Maduro regime and its foreign partners.

Bottom-line analysis:
Fact: U.S. warships and strikes are real, and they are massive in scale.
Fact: Venezuela is deeply intertwined with China, Russia, Iran/Hezbollah, and illicit networks.
Fact: Guyana’s Essequibo-adjacent oil discoveries have reignited an old border dispute.
Reasonable interpretation: The U.S. buildup is about far more than a few drug boats; it’s about deterring Venezuelan moves on Essequibo, checking Chinese and Russian influence, and signaling that the Western Hemisphere is not up for grabs.

Why Hasn’t the Media Connected These Dots?

Mainstream coverage has focused on:

Grainy videos of speedboats being blown up,
Casualty numbers from specific strikes,
U.S.–Venezuela rhetorical escalation,

but often without laying out:

The Guyana–Essequibo oil context,
The China/Russia/Iran dimension,
The Monroe Doctrine framing.

To be fair, some outlets do touch on pieces of this — especially when talking about China in Latin America or the broader re-imagining of the Monroe Doctrine — but it is rarely packaged in one place where a normal reader can follow the whole chain.

It’s hard to have an honest public debate about whether Trump’s Caribbean strategy is wise or dangerous if voters are never shown the full picture — only isolated snapshots that can easily be spun as either “reckless warmongering” or “tough on drugs,” depending on the outlet.

Final Thoughts

You don’t have to:

Approve of everything Trump is doing, or
Support military action in the Caribbean,

to recognize that this is not a random show of muscle.

On the factual record:

A hostile regime, deeply tied to China, Russia, Iran, and transnational crime,
Is contesting control of a region sitting next to one of the most important new offshore oil finds in the world,
Inside what the U.S. has long treated as its own security perimeter.

That’s exactly the kind of problem the Monroe Doctrine was designed for — whether you think that doctrine is wise or outdated.

In my opinion:
The right public conversation is not “Is Trump randomly starting a war?”
It’s:
How should the U.S. respond when great-power rivals and criminal networks converge in our own hemisphere?
What mix of deterrence, diplomacy, and domestic reform (especially on drugs and borders) actually serves American security and freedom?

Those are questions worth debating openly — and they start with getting the facts and context on the table.

Sources:

Here are the key sources behind the factual claims above:

Connor Stringer, “The real reason Trump is preparing for war with Venezuela” (Telegraph / Yahoo syndication)
- https://whatisproject2025.net/the-real-reason-trump-is-preparing-for-war-with-venezuela/ What is Project 2025 -
ExxonMobil & industry coverage of Guyana’s Stabroek Block (~11 billion barrels) and Essequibo dispute
China–Venezuela oil loans and investments
Atlantic Council and Hezbollah / crime-terror hub in Venezuela
- https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/the-maduro-hezbollah-nexus-how-iran-backed-networks-prop-up-the-venezuelan-regime/ Atlantic Council
- https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/The-Maduro-Regime-Illicit-Activities-A-Threat-to-Democracy-in-Venezuela-and-Security-in-Latin-America-Final.pdf Atlantic Council
U.S. naval buildup, airstrikes, and “war on drugs” framing
Cartel de los Soles designation and Venezuelan response
- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/nov/24/venezuela-maduro-us-drug-cartel-terrorism The Guardian
- https://time.com/7336921/venezuela-united-states-conflict-maduro-sword-protest-trump/ TIME
Monroe Doctrine / hemispheric defense & China in the Americas

As always, do your own research and make up your own mind.

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