The Economic Rebound No One Could Ignore
Trump’s Return, Record Markets, and Economic Improvement (Nov 2024–June 2025)
Hi friends,
Don’t let the naysayers bother you.
The data is positive.
(I must also mention the Rwanda/Congo peace treaty as exceptionally good news, and somewhat affects the economy by being an improvement in global stability.)
Keep the faith and take the win.
A Referendum on Stability — November 5, 2024
On the evening of November 5, 2024, the American people made a choice — not just for a candidate, but for a trajectory. At the time, the economy was wobbly but not collapsing. Inflation was still above 4%, consumer confidence was mixed, and the markets had endured months of volatility driven by fears over global instability, energy costs, and interest rate hikes.
Yet the mere news of Trump’s election victory sparked what some analysts called a "relief rally." Wall Street saw it as a signal that regulatory tightening might slow, energy production could expand again, and tax and trade certainty might return.
Within 72 hours, the Dow rose over 900 points, and bond yields fell, indicating renewed investor confidence.
January 2025 – Inauguration and Anticipation
By the time President Trump took office on January 20, 2025, the tone had shifted. Even before a single policy was enacted, market optimism surged on the back of executive orders-in-waiting and pro-growth signaling.
Sectors like energy, defense, construction, and heavy manufacturing began showing movement. By the end of the month, many analysts conceded that, while still early, a soft landing was no longer a fantasy.
“There’s no denying the markets are responding to stability and predictability,” said one CNBC analyst that week. “And Trump is sending those signals in spades.”
February 2025 – From Words to Orders
February marked a transition from speculation to action. Trump signed baseline tariff orders, issued energy deregulation rollbacks, and pushed for a $5,000 green card jobs initiative. Markets didn't just hold — they climbed.
Consumer sentiment showed the first month-over-month improvement since early 2024, and wage growth data beat expectations. Job openings in energy and manufacturing surged.
The market narrative: “Trump isn’t waiting for Congress.”
March 2025 – The Data Starts Catching Up
In March, the economic indicators began catching up to the sentiment.
Inflation slowed for the third month in a row
The unemployment rate ticked downward
Oil prices stabilized as U.S. production rose
Tariff exemptions on over 1,000 categories signaled a calibrated trade strategy
By mid-March, Goldman Sachs revised its recession forecast, saying “a recession is no longer our base case for 2025.”
April 2025 – Growth Feels Real
April brought housing starts up, energy prices down, and GDP growth expectations revised upward by both the Atlanta Fed and private forecasters.
Several multinational firms announced U.S. investments, including steel, chipmaking, and biotech. Trump’s administration touted $420 billion in private capital commitments so far.
Market sentiment? Unmistakably bullish.
May 30, 2025 – Stocks Hit 2024 Highs
CNN: “U.S. stocks are on track to close at 2024 highs”
→ https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/30/investing/us-stock-market
Markets closed out May on a powerful note. A full month of earnings reports showed resilience — even tech and banking rebounded. CNN reported that the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 were all closing at the highest levels since early 2024, completing a six-month recovery arc.
June 6–27, 2025 – New Records, Back-to-Back
The headlines say it all:
June 6: “S&P 500, Nasdaq hit record highs”
→ https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/06/investing/us-stock-marketJune 9: “S&P 500 hits record high for third day”
→ https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/09/investing/us-stock-marketJune 25: “Dow hits all-time high”
→ https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/25/investing/stock-market-record-dowJune 26: “Stock market rally shows strength — not just Big Tech”
→ https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/26/investing/us-stock-marketJune 27: “Dow and S&P 500 hit new record highs”
→ https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/27/investing/stock-market-record-dow-sandp
In just one month:
All three major indexes hit record highs
Gains were broad-based, not just tech
Investors poured into U.S. equities at the fastest pace in 18 months
Volatility remained low
Consumer sentiment rose again
CNN, no friend to Trump, even acknowledged:
“The markets are responding to consistent economic signals, not just political noise.”
What This Means
Yes, markets are up sharply—and notably, gains are broad-based, not just tech-driven. That bodes well for believers in stability and pro-growth policy.
Yes, inflation has cooled a bit, and more easing from the Fed is possible—which supports continued market strength.
However, a weak Q1 GDP, sluggish spending, wobbling consumer confidence, and possible stagflation suggest the recovery isn't bulletproof. Never is.
Tariffs, while boosting revenues, could keep inflation sticky and cloud global trade. Some agreements are finalized; more are in the works.
The Bigger Picture
Not every corner of the economy is perfect. Gas prices have bounced around. The housing market remains tight. Inflation isn't back to 2%. And international instability is still a factor.
But here’s the pattern:
✔️ The economy did not crash after Trump’s win
✔️ Markets responded immediately to clarity and confidence
✔️ Data in every month since has generally trended in a positive direction
✔️ Now, after six months, record-breaking returns confirm a rebound that many said wasn’t possible under Trump
Bottom Line
Trump’s critics said he would crash the economy. Instead, the data suggests he may have stabilized it.
More jobs. More investment. More growth.
It’s still early, but if the trend continues, the second Trump economy may be not just a comeback — but a reinvention.
Optimism with Eyes Wide Open
So far, Trump’s agenda has kept markets on an upward path—no crash, just consistent growth and record highs. But as we know, risks remain.
Naysayers: the crash didn’t happen.
Faith in Trump’s agenda: Trump's policies have delivered.
Realists: challenges lie ahead—always.
Sources:
https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/27/investing/stock-market-record-dow-sandp https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/30/investing/us-stock-market https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/06/investing/us-stock-market https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/09/investing/us-stock-market https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/25/investing/stock-market-record-dow https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/26/investing/us-stock-market
God bless you, God bless President Trump and team, and God bless America!
The battle for our God-given freedoms is always just starting.
Subscribe at RationalAmerican.org for more facts, insights, and uncensored commentary.
As always, do your own research; make up your own mind.
This Substack is provided for informational and commentary purposes only. All claims are based on publicly available sources and are presented as political analysis, not legal conclusions. No assertion is made of unlawful conduct by any individual or organization unless supported by formal public record.
The views expressed reflect my personal perspective on current events. While I strive for accuracy, readers are encouraged to verify details using the official sources linked above. References to third-party material are included for your consideration and do not necessarily reflect my views or imply endorsement.
If you share this content, please include this disclaimer to ensure appropriate context and clarity.
(AI may have been used in this article.)
Stay calm - President Trump is a businessman who operates strategically, and not everything will make sense at first. His plan to shrink government and Make America Great Again is a process, not an overnight fix. Trust the long game, not just the headlines.
United we stand. Divided we fall. We must not let America fall.
VoteTexas.gov, https://www.votetexas.gov/get-involved/index.html
Until next time…
Please share your thoughts in the comments. Or email me, and let’s have a problem-solving conversation. I hope we can create a caucus with positive, back-to-the-founders’-dream-for-America results. Have a topic you want to know more about?
Some housekeeping…
Going forward, you may need to check your spam folder. And please mark this address as ‘not spam.’ If the newsletter isn’t in your spam folder either, you should look in the Promotions tab.
You can always see everything on the website, RationalAmerican.org.
Thanks again for reading! I’m glad you’re here!