Hi friends,
Polls are like the joke about the accountant. What’s the answer to how much is 2 and 2? The punch line is ‘How much do you want it to be’. Another analogy might be that polls are comparable to watching the odds of a horse race before you place your bet.
That’s how reliable polls are.
A Poll Is Not a Result
One headline says a candidate is pulling ahead. Another says the race is tightening. By evening, someone on social media declares that the election is practically over.
It can feel like watching the score of a game that hasn’t been played.
Polls may provide useful information about people’s preferences - based on a predetermined set of questions that are already skewed. In general, especially since 2014, they have been all over the place and seemingly wrong more often than right.
Understanding that helps us read election coverage without swinging between certainty and despair.
The polling record deserves an honest look.
Many polls underestimated Republican support, including support for Donald Trump, in 2016 and 2020. The American Association for Public Opinion Research found that pre-election polls again underestimated Republican support in 2024.
Past errors also do not tell us precisely how future polls will miss. Underestimated Trump? Well, we cannot simply add a few points to someone’s opinion and assume - well, anything really.
What should we look for?
Start with five questions:
When was the survey conducted? An old poll may predate an important development.
Who was surveyed? All adults, registered voters, and likely voters are different groups.
What race does it measure? A national presidential poll does not measure the Electoral College. A national congressional poll does not settle an individual district.
Who conducted and paid for it? Look for the original release and an explanation of its methods.
What did the question actually ask? Read beyond the headline when the wording is available.
A poll’s margin of error matters, too. If two candidates are only a couple of points apart, a small reported lead may not establish who is truly ahead.
And the familiar “plus or minus” figure does not capture every possible problem. Pollsters must account for people who do not answer surveys and estimate who will actually vote. Those judgments increase uncertainty.
Polls and forecasts are also different.
A poll estimates preferences. A forecast combines polls and other information to estimate possible outcomes. A candidate’s 70% chance of winning does not mean that candidate has 70% of the vote. It means the model still allows a meaningful chance of defeat.
That is why a prediction should be read as a possibility, not a promise. Hm, pretty much about as dependable as the weather forecast.
The useful response is neither to dismiss every unfavorable number nor to treat every favorable one as confirmation. Consider several credible sources, examine trends, and keep uncertainty visible. And be aware of your confirmation bias. It’s all to easy to like or believe the polls that indicate our preferred result.
In the coming November 3rd election, most of what I’m seeing says that turnout will decide. So get out there and vote to support your values!
For Texas voters, early voting runs October 19–30, and Election Day is November 3. Official state and county election offices provide the practical information about locations, hours, and voting requirements.
Sources:
https://aapor.org/polling-accuracy/
VoteTexas.gov, https://www.votetexas.gov/get-involved/index.html
As always, do your own research and make up your own mind.
White paper on land and water rights: Property Rights and Freedom: A White Paper on America’s Disappearing Land (8/13/2025)
United we stand. Divided we fall. We must not let America fall.
VoteTexas.gov, https://www.votetexas.gov/get-involved/index.html
Disclaimer:
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