Logic is Notably Missing
Or maybe it's political perspective.
Hi friends,
What would be the logical answer to this question: Can the person appointed by the President follow the President’s orders and downsize a department or agency? One more judge is saying no. (See below, Another Judge, Another Injunction)
How about a logical answer to this question: Is it acceptable for a media giant to edit a candidate’s answers in an interview near an election? A lawsuit ensues and the media giant settles for $16 million. (See below, Paramount Settles Lawsuit)
Or this one: What does it mean when most predictions for bad outcomes continue to be wrong but keep lambasting the person leading the changes? More wins for the American people. (See below, Job Openings)
You see these stories every day. Perhaps the judiciary, and the media, and the so-called pundits will eventually learn to face facts and use logic…
Another Judge, Another Injunction
U.S. District Judge Melissa DuBose has halted the restructuring of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) on the grounds that government officials acted in an “arbitrary and capricious” manner when downsizing the agency. “The defendants have failed to demonstrate how the workforce terminations and restructurings made the subagencies more efficient, saved taxpayer dollars, or aligned with HHS’s priority of ‘ending America’s epidemic of chronic illness, by focusing on safe, wholesome food, clean water, and the elimination of environmental toxins,’” the judge wrote in her ruling.
This morning, CNN ran the latest terrific TAW story, headlined, “Paramount settles Trump’s dubious ‘60 Minutes’ lawsuit with $16 million payout and no apology.” It might’ve been cheaper had they said they were sorry. Oh well.
Despite CNN’s twitchy insistence that the lawsuit was “legally dubious,” the merits were anything but. Trump accused CBS of creatively editing Kamala Harris’s interview with Lester Holt to conjure a digitally improved description of Biden’s Gaza policy —during the heat of an election cycle— airing different clips on different shows, then refusing to release the full transcript. It wasn’t routine editing; it was message management.
A media that delights in spotting everyone else’s “cheap fakes” saw no problem at all with what amounted to an AI-grade rewrite of Kamala’s signature word salad. CBS’s video editors transformed a meandering diplomatic mush into something that almost sounded like coherent policy. The same outlets that cried foul over TikTok deepfakes couldn’t be bothered when 60 Minutes edited the Cackler like a Marvel trailer, snipping out the painful dead air and scads of “ums” until the final cut sparkled with keen insight.
Paramount, the parent company of the CBS television network and its news division, agreed to the settlement late Tuesday.
- Jeff Childers, Coffee and Covid
The Associated Press ran a story yesterday headlined, “US job openings in May hit 7.8 million in a continuing display of labor market resilience.” It was right there in the first sentence: “U.S. job openings rose unexpectedly in May.” Who could’ve seen this coming?
Well, Trump, for one. He predicted it. In any case, the surprised AP dutifully informed its readers that “Economists had expected a slight decrease.” So … whom should we believe on the next one? The guy who’s been uncannily right about energy, trade, inflation, immigration, and most importantly, labor trends? Or the overly credentialed experts who forever forecast imminent financial collapse right before each unexpected improvement? One of these groups is accidentally correct about twice a year. The other is Donald Trump.
The AP coughed up the unexpected facts, reporting that U.S. job openings surged to 7.8 million in May, but quickly tried to minimize the good news by noting it was still slightly below Biden’s final pre-election month in office in November, when openings hit 8 million. What the AP didn’t mention is that Biden’s November figure was part of the now-infamous juiced-up pre-election jobs streak— numbers that got immediately shrink-rayed in February when the Labor Department quietly revised them downward by hundreds of thousands.
So yes, Trump’s May number technically trails Biden’s peak, the same way the female swimmers trail Lia Thomas’s two pool-length lead.
Haha, not every sector enjoyed bursting new job demand. “Vacancies at the federal government,” the AP reported gloomily, “fell to the lowest level since May 2020.”
- Jeff Childers, Coffee and Covid
CBO Projections About The ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’
As of June 5th, here’s what the Congressional Budget Office said about the One Big Beautiful Bill:
It’s the CBO’s terrible track record when it comes to predicting the impact of tax and health care policies…
By the CBO’s accounting, the House reconciliation bill would cut tax revenue by $3.7 trillion and cut spending by $1.3 trillion over the next 10 years, resulting in deficits that are $2.4 trillion larger than they’d otherwise be…
But wait a second. These are 10-year projections. They are based on a raft of assumptions about incredibly complicated systems.
So, the important question is, just how good is the Congressional Budget Office at making such predictions?
The answers are easily found, although you’d never know it based on the media’s total lack of interest.
Let’s take a look at the “cost” of those tax cuts.
First, it’s important to note that the bulk of the “tax cuts” aren’t tax cuts at all. The Republican bill would simply prevent a massive tax increase that would take place if Congress were to let the 2017 tax cuts expire.
The CBO assumes that, should those tax cuts expire, nothing else will change. The economy will keep rolling along, businesses and individuals won’t change their behavior in the face of a sudden tax hike, job growth will remain unchanged.
That is a fantasy. More likely, a sudden spike in taxes would cause a recession, which would explode federal deficits and throw millions out of work.
What’s more, the CBO’s attempt to forecast tax revenues has already been proved deeply flawed. In early 2018, it projected tax revenues that would result from Trump’s tax cuts, which he signed in late 2017.
Before the Trump tax cuts were enacted, the CBO forecast that revenues from 2018 through 2024 would total $28.2 trillion. After the tax cuts, it said revenues would be $27 trillion. The actual result: $28.5 trillion. In other words, the Trump tax cuts more than paid for themselves, and that’s despite the intervening COVID recession, which cratered tax revenues in 2020.
Why was the CBO so far off the mark? Because it didn’t account for the extra economic growth that the Trump tax cuts, along with his energy policies and deregulatory push, generated.
Well, surely the CBO is better at predicting the impact of Medicaid spending cuts, right?
Let’s check the record.
When Obamacare was enacted in 2010, the CBO said that the law’s expansion of Medicaid would increase the number of enrollees by 16 million in 2019. The actual number was 34 million. And that, mind you, is despite the fact that not every state expanded Medicaid as the CBO expected.
The CBO also predicted that 24 million people would be getting insurance through the subsidized Obamacare “exchanges” by 2019. Turns out, only 14 million were.
And it projected that only 23 million people would be uninsured in 2019. Actual number: 30 million.
Even by government standards, those are massive forecasting mistakes.
This isn’t to say that the CBO is run or staffed by dunderheads. It’s that any 10-year forecast is going to be completely unreliable. No one can competently predict how things will unfold a decade from now with any degree of accuracy.
Apparently this is the accepted process: Immediate debt of an estimated multi-trillion amount of dollars one day, then try to guess how something else in the ‘budget’ will do over a ten-year period - without taking into account all the factors? Logical? I know it doesn’t work that way in my budget.
Tariffs remain projected by CBO to reduce deficits ($2.8 T over 10 years). It would hardly be surprising if, once again, the CBO gets it wrong. It’ll be interesting to see what their next prediction is.
And Speaking of Tariffs:
China - Some progress decreased to ~55% tariffs, but further detailed talks are continuing. Will we get an agreement by the July 8–9 deadline?
Canada is once again in talks with President Trump. Trump ended all trade talks due to Canada’s digital services tax on U.S. tech firms. Canada has dropped its plan and made some interim concessions. Tariffs are still in effect; negotiations are paused.
Vietnam (July 2): U.S. announced 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports (40% on transshipments), while Vietnam agreed to eliminate tariffs on U.S. goods.
Tariff Cash Is Rolling In: June’s Record Take Spikes by $20.5 Billion Year-over-Year
‘Businesses have been paying them out of their huge profits and have not been able to pass them on to consumers so far.’
This article is very detailed and indicates a continued growth in tariff revenues.
Tariff revenues are already breaking records.
June revenue surge: Customs duties are on pace for another record. As of early July, June revenue is projected to top the May record of $23–24 billion—which had been up 168% from April ($24 billion this May vs. ~$8.2 billion in a typical 2024 month).
YTD totals: As of June 23, total tariff collections have reached approximately $95.6 billion, marking a 135% increase compared to last year.
New high water mark: DHS data show $24 billion transferred in May alone—implying an annualized pace of $288 billion if the trend holds.
About the Fed
We’ve been hearing Trump thinks Jerome Powell should adjust the rates because of the positive economy signs. Powell is resisting. Is he right, or is he acting politically. Compare these actions under Biden:
By late 2024, the Fed decided conditions were favorable for rate relief .
December was a politically ‘safe’ window — post-election but during the lame-duck phase.
The December 18, 2024 cut brought rates to 4.25–4.50%, near the end of Biden’s term.
It was the first Fed cut since early 2020 — a notable pivot.
Credit: Meme Guys
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The battle for our God-given freedoms is always just starting.
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